Recession Risk Rising 2/19/16
We’re still watching for signs of possible slowdowns in the domestic economy. The Conference Board reported yesterday 2/18/16 that its Leading Economic Index® declined slightly again in January by 0.2%. This follows a 0.3% decline for December. For specific report details see: conference-board.org.
We’re also monitoring another indicator of recession risk called Smoothed US Recession Probabilities. It may be found at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the link: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
![SOURCE: Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N, February 19, 2016.](https://www.selectionsandtiming.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/RecessionRiskRisingGraph.jpg)
SOURCE: Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N, February 19, 2016.
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